International Trade Blog

The number of job appointments has increased for the second month in row. Sound like good news? It sort of is, but the overall situation in UK is far from picture perfect.

Although the unemployment level is the highest since 1995 that last two months have shown good promise. While job market is still very far away from booming one positive fact can be mentioned. It seems than the rate of job losses has reached its peak and that means that the unemployment levels will not drastically increase. Even more good news is that there is appearing more and more permanent and periodical new job opening which can be directly connected to the increasing stability. Many companies have understood that the country has withstood the hardest blow of the global economic crisis and has entered the path of recovery. The faster the stability level will grow the faster will the job market expand.

While the statement that the global crisis has been defeated did no actual good for the general population these news give at least a small ray of hope. Now at least the people have something to look for. While finding a good job is still a very hard undertaking at least it is possible no matter the chances. Three months ago this was not so. We have to grab hold of every little piece of hope or otherwise we might crack and give in to depression. Let’s hope that we will receive more and more good news all over the world.

The unemployment rate in USA has almost reached the 10% mark and currently stands at 9.8%. Although the economy has been growing for the last three months the unemployment levels have not apparently heard about that. While somebody might be perplexed about this situation I am not because I already predicted that this will happen.

Yes the economy is improving there is no denying that, but it is still only improving on paper and no actual improving cannot be seen. I do not think that this situation will greatly change in the next tree months. The unemployment levels will start to decrease only when stability returns. Stability will bring back consumer confidence which means more money influx into all markets. Healthy markets will create new jobs as recovering companies will need more workers to reach previous levels of productivity. When will this happen? Who knows! I hope that 2010 will be a good year and that certain stability will return. If the economy keeps it course then the companies will gain more confidence and thus decrease unemployment levels.

What can we do in the mean time? Basically nothing! Those who still have of job will do anything possible to keep it. Those who do not have a job will basically just do anything. The winter will be hard for us all so lets hope that the new year will bring better news that this one.

Despite the latest news from various analysts about the end of the global economic crisis the average US consumer still does not feel safe. Consumer confidence is down in numbers in comparison with previous months.

What could be the main cause for this? Yes the analysts say that the crisis is over and predict soon recovery, but in reality the everyday consumer still does not feel the difference. Basically the consumer is completely right because until now the recovery is still a recovery on paper. While different indexes and other economic tools might prove that the crisis is defeated in real life there is no actual change. Salaries are still low and unemployment levels are still very high. There are still no realistic guarantees that the unemployment level will not grow further and many more people lose their jobs. This is actually quite possible as for many countries winter is nearing and this means no more seasonal jobs. The consumers are very concerned about long term income as no one can guarantee that. I believe that the confidence will grow, but it will take some time. If you would ask me to predict I would say that overall consumer confidence will start to improve beginning 2010, but only if the predictions about recovery come true.

Nevertheless there is a positive change in the US market. Home prices are starting to grow. Although they are still far behind 2008 levels this is considered to be quite significant.

Confidence is very important and the only thing that can influence it is stability. The faster countries and the whole world itself regain stability the sooner the consumer confidence will return.

The next G20 meeting plans to call for serious changes in global economy. While the current economy shows signs of improvement, they believe that the improvement is too slow. While this may sound good we must remember that G20 have no actual real power. All will depend on individual rulings of various countries.

The main idea behind all these changes is that countries with huge debts cut their spending and increase savings. The only organization able to influence this process seems to be the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but only to a certain level as the countries with the biggest debt are USA and UK. So what really can the International Monetary Fund (IMF) do? The other step is for more saving oriented countries like Germany and China to increase their spending. While this may be a good idea as it will pump more money into the markets again there is no real organization that can enforce this. While German population may be encouraged to spend more I really doubt that the average Chinese will increase his spending habits considering the fact that they have to save money for health care and retirement as the national support is very low.

Yes global economy should be reorganized, but this reorganization cannot be forced. Countries must realize this on their own that something is not right with the current situation. If they do that then there is hope of a new global economy. If you ask me I do not think that the world is ready for this, at least not all of the world.

After four quarters of steadily decrease in economic activity, the second quarter of this year offers good signs for the overall economy of Japan. Does this mean that Japan has conquered the global economic crisis? Not yet, but they have embarked on the right way to do so.

As most national banks the Bank of Japan has been pumping huge amounts of money into the national economy to stabilize and improve the situation. Now they have decided is the right time to stop all these actions because they could hinder the natural recovery of Japan. So now the banks main objective is to strengthen the national currency. The yen has already improved its value against the US dollar. While this could hurt the export sector as one of Japans main markets is the USA, in the long term it is believed that it will benefit the whole country. Seems quite a risky step as export levels are already down and Japan is very dependent on the economic situation of USA. Although the technological and quality levels of Japan’s goods are up to date they should be vary of one fact. What if USA switches its full attention to China? Granted the quality levels cannot be compared to Japan, but the costs and quantity can be very attractive for US importers. None the less these are finally some good news for Japan. If the global situation keeps improving then Japan surely will overcome the global crisis and reach total recovery.

Of course this will not happen overnight, but these are the first good signs. I really do hope that Japan succeeds in their recovery plans as I believe that Japan is a vital part of overall global recovery. The faster this happen the better for us all.

While still a lot of people experience the wrath of the global economic crisis some governments and analysts have already proclaimed that the crisis is over and we are on a way to a recovery. One of these statements was made in UK.

Of course it sounds great and very encouraging, but there are problems with this statement and UK trade union has pointed out these problems, and warns people to be very careful. True some stock prices have shown improvement which means that really there are some positive changes happening, but it is still too soon to speak about a recovery. Well we might speak about it, but then only in theory. How can one speak about a recovery if the unemployment levels are still very high and salary levels so low? The government is sponsored by inhabitants of a country and not the other way round. If the people do not have the money and are fighting with threats of poverty how can we speak about a recovery. Only when these factors will begin to change then it is time to really speak about the end of crisis. But some governments tend to forget that.

Of course we must think positive and hope that we will recover as fast as possible. We cannot rely on some experts who say that now the crisis is over and everything will be good now. This does not happen in real life. We, the simple people, do not care about stock prices and GDP growth indexes, all we care about is quality of life and as long as we have to struggle to survive all talks about a recovery is wishful thinking. I really do hope that the crisis is almost beaten, but on the other hand I am very afraid of what will happen in the course of next few months.

Although the global economic crisis is still roaming around the world, many governments start to issue statements that the crisis is over and recovery is there. Sound nice, but what does this actually mean?

Various analysts all over the world predict total recovery by 2010 and increase of GDP. If it will be true then it is great news for everyone. Salaries will raise, unemployment levels will drastically decrease, the overall quality of life will reach unseen heights. Sounds like utopia doesn’t it? Ok let’s say that the crisis has been beaten and we are on the way to recovery. This really should mean that employers should increase wages, but I do not think that it will happen so soon. It is very easy to cut salaries, but much harder to raise them. That is the simple nature of human beings. Even if the economic situation improves employers tend to be very ‘’careful’’ with raising wages. And why shouldn’t they be? They have suffered through the crisis, had a legitimate opportunity to cut costs be decreasing salaries and now nobody can order them to reset the salaries to previous levels. This means more profit and as the economic situation still seams fragile employees will still be afraid to lose work and obey the employer. So basically we could celebrate the fact of recovery, but we will not receive any actual benefit from it, at least not as soon as we expected.

Granted the unemployment level should improve as companies who have recovered will hire new employees, but then again the salary level will not reach previous levels. None the less this is still good news as more and more people will be able to earn at least a minimum wage to survive and feed their families.

The improvement of the quality of life takes even longer as it is directly connected with salary levels and the overall employment level. Granted the crisis had one positive effect. It decreased the overall costs of food and clothes and some services which previously had reached ridiculous heights.

The general consensus is that yes we can speak about recovery, but only on paper. In real life we will probably experience it only in 2011, of course only if the prognosis does not change and we do not encounter another crisis. Let’s hope for the best scenario.

The major experts predict that by 2010 the economy of UK will recover. A bold prediction you might say, but it actually seems that they might be right. At least it is positive thinking finally.

The experts forecast a 1.1% growth of economy in 2010. Compared to 0.6% forecast this year the increase is clearly visible. Unemployment levels will reach 3 million as opposed to the forecasted 3.2 millions. A recovery seams very possible, but it won’t be easy to sustain it due to the large UK debts. Although not clearly visible, but most experts are sure that the economy has already started to recover. This trend can be seen not only in UK, but also other countries. So there must be some hard truth behind it all. The experts agree that this recession is somewhat worse than the one in 1990, but not as worse as the one in 1980. Now the only things that could slow down the recovery are; high unemployment, low consumer spending and fragile banking sector. The general idea behind decreasing government debt is to cut back public spending. Of course that will be quite an unpopular action, but is a necessary thing to do.

In general these are very good news. Of course the recovery will not occur in one day. I think we all understand that. It is a long term project which can be achieved only by working together towards a common goal. Let’s hope that 2010 is the year when the global economic crisis will be defeated all across the world.

The export levels of India have decreased quite drastically and now the government has decided that it is the time to perform some countermeasures. A wise choice if you ask me. They have to decide to implement some taxes brakes and waive some import duties. That surely could boost some trade levels.

The main trading partners of India have always been the USA and Western Europe. Although the global economic crisis has not had a crushing impact on India, it wreaks havoc on European and US economies. These economies on the other hand affect the economy of India, meaning that the global economic crisis has caught up with India. Now the government plans to promote trade with Eastern Europe, Australia, Latin America and Africa thus increasing trade levels. If this plan succeeds that should lift the export levels and the whole economy of India.

Actually no matter the outcome the fact that the government is really taking some measures is superb. Lowering the taxes seems like the perfect tool to battle the global economic crisis, though some governments think that it is the time to increase various taxes to increase the overall income of the country. While increasing taxes may seem like a good idea in theory, in real life it has the opposite effect. It actually decreases the income as people have less money to spend and enterprises crumble under the heavy taxes. This is a perfect breading ground for shadow economy, starting form evasion from taxes till salary in envelopes. Sometimes it really seems that the people that we have voted in our governments have absolutely no clue about how the economy actually works.

Let’s hope that India’s example will influence other countries to similar actions, but I would not actually hold my breath about it.

The main experts in USA have proclaimed that the recession of US economy may have come to a halt and there are promising signs of recovery. This is not only good news for USA, but for everybody as US economy has a worldwide influence. Let’s hope that these predictions turn out to be true.

The Dow Jones index rose by 1 % and European markets also increased. US government officials said that it seems that the economy has recovered from the hardest blow, but they also warned that unemployment level will decrease only step by step. Still European officials remind that this recovery is very fragile. In fact US officials acknowledge this fact and do not promise a miraculous fast recovery. The general assumption is that the recovery will be a long and hard process and that at first the progress will be very slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had earlier predicted that the economic growth of USA next year will be zero or even negative, but now they have changed the prognosis to 0.75 % growth.

The positive headlines of the different markets have had an impact on worldwide economy as most countries are starting to pull out of the economic crisis. The general fear of total financial collapse seems to have vanished or at least moved further back in our minds. I really hope that USA has defeated the global economic crisis as it only can mean good news. Let’s be real, the crisis will not stop in one certain day. It will be a long and demanding process, but we have to start somewhere. Stability and a certain financial safety is the key to overcoming the global economic crisis. An increasing consumer spending is the best news for every country in the world. Let’s hope that the good news of USA will convince their people to believe in a recovery.